The eighth and reportedly final chapter of Tom Cruise’s iconic Mission: Impossible series, Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, hit theaters on May 23, 2025, with high expectations. With a record-breaking franchise opening and Cruise’s signature jaw-dropping stunts, the film seemed poised for success. However, with a massive $400 million budget—one of the priciest in Hollywood history—some are questioning whether it might end up as a box office flop. Let’s break down the numbers, challenges, and buzz to see if The Final Reckoning is in trouble or if Ethan Hunt’s last mission will still soar.
A Strong Start, But a Steep Climb
The film kicked off with a bang, grossing $64 million domestically over its three-day opening weekend and $79 million over the four-day Memorial Day weekend, marking the franchise’s best debut ever. Globally, it raked in $200 million in just five days, including $127 million from 64 international markets. By June 17, 2025, it had amassed $508.1 million worldwide, with $167.6 million in the U.S. and Canada and $340.5 million overseas, making it the seventh highest-grossing film of 2025 so far. In China, it topped the box office with $25.6 million, including $4.9 million from IMAX screenings, and in India, it crossed ₹100 crore by its fourth week.
These are big numbers, and Tom Cruise celebrated the milestone, calling the Memorial Day weekend “one for the history books” in a heartfelt social media post, thanking fans and the industry. The film’s $8.3 million in domestic previews alone set a franchise record, beating Dead Reckoning Part One’s $7 million. Posts on X echoed the excitement, with @TheCinesthetic noting the $190 million global opening as the biggest in the franchise’s 29-year history.
But here’s the catch: with a $400 million production budget—swelled by COVID-19 delays, 2023 Hollywood strikes, and inflation—the film needs to gross around $800 million to $1 billion worldwide to break even, factoring in theaters keeping roughly half the ticket sales and additional marketing costs. As of now, at $508.1 million, it’s only halfway there, and its trajectory is slowing, raising concerns about its ability to hit that mark.
Why It Might Flop
Several factors are stacking up against The Final Reckoning. First, its box office dropped 57.5% in its second weekend, the second-worst decline in the franchise behind Dead Reckoning’s 64.6%. This steep fall, compared to Fallout’s steadier 42.3% drop, suggests it’s struggling to maintain momentum against heavy competition like Disney’s Lilo & Stitch, which dominated with $341 million globally. The film’s nearly three-hour runtime (170 minutes) also limits daily screenings, potentially capping ticket sales.
Critics gave it an 80% on Rotten Tomatoes, earning a Certified Fresh badge, but that’s lower than Fallout (98%) and Dead Reckoning (96%). Some reviewers, like those at SlashFilm, noted the first hour drags with heavy exposition, which might not hook casual viewers. Audience scores are strong—an A- CinemaScore and 89% on Rotten Tomatoes—but they’re a dip from Dead Reckoning’s 94%, hinting at less word-of-mouth buzz. The stunts, including Cruise hanging off a biplane and navigating a sunken submarine, are thrilling but feel less fresh compared to past hits like the Burj Khalifa climb in Ghost Protocol.
The film’s predecessor, Dead Reckoning Part One, also underperformed at $565.7 million worldwide against a $291 million budget, hurt by the “Barbenheimer” craze. The Final Reckoning faces similar competition and a post-COVID box office where streaming has cut theatergoing. With a break-even point higher than any Mission: Impossible film has ever reached—Fallout holds the franchise record at $786.6 million—analysts at CBR and Koimoi warn it’s “likely to end up a major box office flop” unless it sustains a long run.
Why It Might Still Succeed
Despite the challenges, The Final Reckoning has strengths. Its $508.1 million global haul has already surpassed Mission: Impossible III ($399.4 million) and is closing in on the original Mission: Impossible ($457.7 million) and Mission: Impossible 2 ($546.4 million). It’s projected to hit $650-$700 million worldwide, which, while shy of the $1 billion needed, would still rank it among the franchise’s top earners. A strong performance in China, where it opens on May 30, could push it closer to Rogue Nation ($688.8 million) or Ghost Protocol ($694.7 million).
The film’s emotional weight as Ethan Hunt’s final mission, directed by Christopher McQuarrie, resonates with fans. The ensemble cast—Hayley Atwell, Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg, Angela Bassett, and Esai Morales—adds depth, and the story’s high-stakes AI villain, The Entity, feels timely. McQuarrie’s tweaks post-Dead Reckoning, like simplifying the plot and cutting flashbacks, aimed to make it more accessible, and fans on X praise its “heartfelt farewell” to Ethan Hunt. Plus, its eventual release on Paramount+ could boost its overall performance, even if theaters don’t hit the jackpot.
The Verdict
Is Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning doomed to flop? It’s not a clear-cut disaster. Its record-breaking opening and $508.1 million global gross show Cruise’s star power and the franchise’s pull. But that $400 million budget sets a brutal benchmark, and with a 57.5% second-weekend drop and mixed reviews, it’s struggling to keep pace with Fallout’s $786.6 million peak. Competition from Lilo & Stitch and a long runtime aren’t helping, and the $1 billion break-even point feels out of reach. Still, a strong international run, especially in China, and eventual streaming revenue on Paramount+ could soften the blow.